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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 26 2019 9:53 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 261957
SWODY1
SPC AC 261956

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely through tonight across much of the
central Plains and southern High Plains, with all aspects of severe
weather expected. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible
through this evening across portions of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, accompanied by a risk for severe wind and hail.

...Discussion...

Minor changes have been made to OH Valley severe probabilities.
Cluster of deep convection has evolved ahead of a progressive
short-wave trough over southern IN/KY. Remnant MCV appears to be
located near BMG and this feature should encourage convection
downstream into the early evening hours. Subsidence in the wake of
this short wave warrants reduced severe probabilities and this is
reflected in 20z outlook.

..Darrow.. 05/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

...High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
Downstream from a deep closed low digging south-southeastward along
the CA coast, a lead shortwave trough over southern AZ will eject
northeastward to the central High Plains by late evening.  In
response, lee cyclogenesis will occur across CO, as a diffuse warm
front (reinforced by overnight convection) moves northward across
western KS.  Richer low-level moisture will be drawn northward from
the TX Panhandle into western KS/eastern CO, beneath an elevated
mixed layer plume.  Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE at or above 3000 J/kg)
is expected this afternoon south of the warm front and east of a
developing dryline across the High Plains.

Surface heating/mixing, as well as ascent preceding the ejecting
midlevel trough, will support thunderstorm development along the
dryline by mid afternoon from extreme northeast NM into eastern CO
along the dryline.  An increase in low-level shear later this
afternoon/evening, within the unstable/moist environment, will be
supportive of supercells capable of producing tornadoes (a few of
which could be strong) and very large hail.  The storm evolution by
late afternoon/evening could become more complex with storm
interactions and upscale growth possible, especially near the warm
front along the KS/CO border, though eventual consolidation of
storms may also occur farther south along the dryline near and after
sunset.  The convection is expected to persist overnight across
KS/NE, with the threat for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes with
embedded circulations, and storms could reach western IA near the
end of the period with at least a marginal wind threat.  

...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic through early tonight...
A somewhat diffuse MCV and remnant convection are moving over
western PA as of midday will continue eastward/east-southeastward
over southern PA/northern VA/MD this afternoon.  Destabilization in
advance of this subtle wave will support at least isolated storm
development this afternoon, in an environment with straight
hodographs (effective bulk shear 35-40 kt) and moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg).  Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
main threats.

Farther west, a more pronounced shortwave trough near Saint Louis as
of mid morning will progress eastward over the OH Valley through the
afternoon and evening.  Moderate buoyancy will be present this
afternoon in advance of the shortwave trough, along the synoptic
front from southern IL across southern IN into OH, as well as a
weakening outflow boundary from northern WV into northern KY. 
Additional storm development is expected along these boundaries and
in advance of the midlevel trough, with damaging gusts/large hail
expected with storm clusters/embedded supercells.  The storm
clusters could persist into late evening/early tonight while moving
east of the Appalachians.

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com