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SPC Day 2 Outlook

Updates are issued at 100 am CST/CDT (0600/0700 UTC) and 1730 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 23 2018 3:52 pm


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS02 KWNS 230446
SWODY2
SPC AC 230445

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the Upper Midwest
into portions of the mid Missouri Valley/central Plains, as well as
portions of the lower Ohio Valley, Monday afternoon and evening,
accompanied by some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
While subtropical ridging becomes a bit more prominent across much
of the southeastern U.S. through this period, models suggest that
the mid-latitude westerlies may become more amplified across the
northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This will include
the evolution of one large-scale trough east of the
Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies through the upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes/Ontario vicinity by 12Z Tuesday.  One short wave
perturbation embedded within the cyclonic regime is forecast to be
in the process of lifting north of the international border area as
early as 12Z Monday.  It appears that this may be accompanied by
modest surface cyclogenesis across northwestern Ontario, toward
Hudson Bay.  A trailing cold front is expected to advance slowly
southeastward through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid to lower
Missouri Valley, and central  Plains, as one or two additional short
wave perturbations dig into and through the base of the larger-scale
troughing.

At the same time, to the south and east of the troughing in the
mid-latitude westerlies, models indicate that one or two
increasingly sheared perturbations will accelerate northeastward
through portions of the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, around
the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  These may be
accompanied by the north/northeastward advection of seasonably high
moisture content, initially confined to the lower Mississippi Valley
and Southeast, through much of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys by the end of the period.

...Upper Midwest into central Plains...
Ahead of the southeastward advancing front, boundary layer moisture
appears likely to be initially rather modest, but could increase
through the lower 60s within a narrow plume beneath warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air.  As cooling associated with large-scale
ascent and advection erode the elevated mixed-layer and stabilize
mid-level lapse rates, models generally indicate the development of
CAPE only on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Monday afternoon. 
Furthermore, stronger low-level wind fields (at or above 30 kt at
850 mb) are forecast to shift across and north of the  upper Great
Lakes region during the afternoon.  However, 30-50 kt flow within
the 700-500 mb layer may linger in a southwesterly belt near the
axis of instability, and could still contribute to an environment
conducive to vigorous thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon
and evening.  Before boundary layer instability wanes due to the
loss of daytime heating, and the progression of the front, a narrow
broken squall line could evolve, which may pose at least some risk
for severe hail and wind gusts.

...Lower Ohio Valley vicinity...
Models suggest that low-level hodographs could become modestly large
(850-700 mb flow up to around 30 kt) and clockwise curved across the
region by midday Monday, on the leading edge of richer boundary
layer moisture (including surface dew points near 70f) return. 
Although this may be preceded by an area of convective precipitation
associated with one mid-level perturbation, breaks in cloud cover to
the southwest of this activity may contribute to moderate boundary
layer destabilization (CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg).  It appears
possible that there could be a corridor where the environment
becomes conducive to thunderstorms which could pose a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts, or perhaps a tornado or two, before
boundary layer instability wanes Monday evening.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Kerr.. 09/23/2018

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com