Rain radar more information rain snow radar


You find our weather info also at:

WeatherCloud

Weather Underground

Citizen Weather Observer Program (CWOP)

HAMweather, WeatherForYou, PWS Weather



Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Sep 23 2018 3:52 pm


 

Day 1

D4Wednesday Sep 26 2018 - Thursday Sep 27 2018 D7Saturday Sep 29 2018 - Sunday Sep 30 2018
D5Thursday Sep 27 2018 - Friday Sep 28 2018 D8Sunday Sep 30 2018 - Monday Oct 1 2018
D6Friday Sep 28 2018 - Saturday Sep 29 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SWOD48 SPC AC 230851 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in relatively good agreement through the period, in terms of the general large-scale pattern. However, very subtle variations aloft -- particularly from day 6 (Friday 9-28) onward -- result in relatively significant differences being realized in the evolution of the surface pattern. As such, any forecast for convective potential beyond day 5 remains difficult at this time. Prior to this, the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that a strong cold front will sweep across the southern and eastern U.S. -- such that by the end of day 4/beginning of day 5 (Thursday morning 9-27), the front will likely have cleared the New England coast, while trailing southwestward across the Middle and Southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states. On day 4 (Wednesday), passage of this front across the Northeast will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, and at this time it appears that risk for locally damaging winds will also exist within a low-CAPE/high-shear regime. While a second front is forecast to move out of Canada and into/across the northern and central Plains day 5, it appears that the front will progress too quickly on the heels of the prior front -- so as to preclude appreciable moistening/destabilization ahead of this second boundary. Meanwhile, while convection is forecast near and south of the initial/lingering front, from the Mid-Atlantic region across the Southeast to Texas, stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side, and thus at this point it appears than any severe potential is too limited to delineate with an outlook area. ..Goss.. 09/23/2018

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com