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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Feb 22 2019 3:51 am


 

Day 1

D4Sunday Feb 24 2019 - Monday Feb 25 2019 D7Wednesday Feb 27 2019 - Thursday Feb 28 2019
D5Monday Feb 25 2019 - Tuesday Feb 26 2019 D8Thursday Feb 28 2019 - Friday Mar 1 2019
D6Tuesday Feb 26 2019 - Wednesday Feb 27 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 210954 SWOD48 SPC AC 210953 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The center of a broad and deep cyclone may begin to weaken while migrating north of the Great Lakes region on Sunday, but models suggest that significant secondary cyclogenesis is possible from the vicinity of the New England coast through the Canadian Maritimes. Ahead of a trailing cold front, which is expected to advance east of the Appalachians, and across the mid and south Atlantic Seaboard, models suggest that low-level moistening may support sufficient destabilization to support one or more narrow lines of low-topped convection, particularly across the Carolinas and Georgia. However, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles remain conducive to lightning on Sunday is still unclear. While severe thunderstorm potential seems low, given the forecast strength of the environmental wind fields (likely including 40-70 kt in the 850-700 mb layer), downward transport of momentum may result in localized potentially damaging wind gusts even in showers. Otherwise, medium-range models indicate that a blocking upper high will evolve across the Gulf of Alaska into the Alaska/Yukon vicinity, and remain prominent through this period. This will generally maintain broadly confluent flow downstream, inland of the Pacific coast, though there may be some building of southern stream ridging along the Pacific coast by late week, and downstream trough amplification across the lower Rio Grande Valley. At the same time, the northern stream may remain broadly cyclonic across the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Northeast. This regime appears likely to maintain cold surface ridging from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley through much of the period, contributing to the maintenance of low severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 02/21/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com