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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Nov 18 2018 5:37 am


Day 1

D4Wednesday Nov 21 2018 - Thursday Nov 22 2018 D7Saturday Nov 24 2018 - Sunday Nov 25 2018
D5Thursday Nov 22 2018 - Friday Nov 23 2018 D8Sunday Nov 25 2018 - Monday Nov 26 2018
D6Friday Nov 23 2018 - Saturday Nov 24 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000 ACUS48 KWNS 170757 SWOD48 SPC AC 170755 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Stable conditions are expected to prevail across the majority of the CONUS from early next week into the weekend. The only exception is across TX on D5/Wednesday, when showers and thunderstorms appear possible as a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough progresses over the southern Plains. Given the current guidance, severe storms seem unlikely on this day or any other day within the forecast period. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2018

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com