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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Dec 14 2018 2:45 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 141308
SWODY1
SPC AC 141307

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.

...Northern/Central Florida...
A closed low-latitude upper low will continue to spread eastward
from east TX toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and broader Gulf
Coast region through tonight. Multiple extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented bands of convection are ongoing this
morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of an
eastward-moving cold front. A warm/moist conveyor ahead of the front
will maintain persistent scattered thunderstorms while a gradual
moistening of the boundary layer occurs. 

Prevalent ongoing convection over much of northern FL should
effectively limit the northward extent of appreciable
destabilization, and thus, the potential for surface-based severe
storms. This suggests that west-central/north-central portions of
the FL Peninsula should have the most probable severe risk today,
which could continue into this evening. Deep-layer shear will
increase to around 35-45 kt across this region by the afternoon,
which will support continued organization of inland-spreading
convection into the western/north-central FL Peninsula. Isolated
strong to damaging winds will likely be the primary threat given the
linear storm mode. A tornado could also occur with circulations
embedded within the line as strong flow in the 0-3 km layer supports
enlarged low-level hodographs.

...Coastal Georgia to Eastern Carolinas...
Strengthening southerly low-level winds by this evening will
transport greater low-level moisture over the coastal Carolinas,
where the potential for near-surface-based thunderstorms may
increase along the immediate coast as surface dewpoints reach the
mid to perhaps upper 60s. Some threat for isolated strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may exist tonight into early Saturday
morning near the coast associated with the low-level jet and
increased low-level shear.

...Mid-South into MS/AL...
While a couple of strong storms may persist across southern AR early
today, storm intensity should wane this morning as instability is
exhausted in vicinity of the upper low and occlusion.

Farther east into AL, stronger mid/upper-level winds are forecast
this afternoon, and a pocket of weak instability (MLCAPE around 500
J/kg) may develop amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower
60s ahead of a cold front. While a strong low-topped storm could
occur across southern AL this afternoon, the overall severe
potential currently appears low.

..Guyer/Goss.. 12/14/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com