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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Apr 25 2019 12:04 am


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado
threat are expected to develop across parts of south-central and
southeast Texas today into western Louisiana tonight.

...Southern Texas through western Louisiana and extreme southern
Arkansas...

Have made some modest adjustments to previous forecast based on
mesoscale trends. Primary zone of thunderstorm development so far
has been north of a southward-surging outflow boundary. However
storms are undergoing linear organizing over central TX in
association with an MCV, and this activity should eventually
intercept the warm sector as it continues east this evening. This
suggests the primary threat should transition from hail to damaging
wind, especially from south central through southeast TX this
afternoon and evening, then western LA tonight.

..Dial.. 04/24/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

...South central/southeast TX into western LA through tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over northern Mexico will translate
eastward to central/east TX by the end of the period.  Weak surface
cyclogenesis is expected along stalled baroclinic zone across
central TX in advance of the midlevel trough.  However, the surface
pattern is complicated by convective outflow that is still moving
southeastward past San Antonio as of late morning.  The primary
corridor of severe-storm threat this afternoon into tonight should
be along this outflow boundary from south central into southeast TX.

Boundary-layer dewpoints of 67-70 F and surface heating in cloud
breaks (beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km) will drive
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Deep-layer vertical shear will be
favorable for supercells, with an increase in low-level shear
expected immediately east of the ejecting midlevel trough and weak
surface wave.  Storm mode will likely be a mix of
clusters/supercells this afternoon, growing into a QLCS by this
evening.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will favor some
tornado threat with supercells/clusters along the residual outflow
boundary and adjacent northern part of the warm sector.  Damaging
winds and large hail will also be possible with this convection into
tonight as it reaches the TX/LA border region.

...Northeast WY and vicinity this afternoon...
A mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and will
move east-southeastward over the northern High Plains this
afternoon/evening.  Despite marginal low-level moisture,
sufficiently steep low-midlevel lapse rates will support some
low-topped convection this afternoon in advance of the midlevel
trough.  Gusty winds will be possible given the steep low-level
lapse rates/evaporational cooling potential, though severe winds
appear unlikely.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com