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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 20 2018 3:02 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 201255
SWODY1
SPC AC 201253

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the Mid-South from
mid-afternoon to early evening. Damaging winds should be the primary
hazard, but a couple tornadoes and large hail are possible.

...Mid-MS Valley to Mid-South/Ark-La-Tex...
Shortwave trough over the Lower MO Valley will slowly dampen as it
shifts east into IL/IN through early Tuesday. Associated surface
cyclone over southwest IA will gradually fill as it reaches northern
IN. An arcing cold front will lie across the Mid-MS Valley to
Ark-La-Tex region this afternoon. Scattered to numerous storms will
form along this boundary during mid to late afternoon, with initial
development by early afternoon near the MO/AR border. The air mass
ahead of the front will become moderately unstable over southern
IL/southeast MO to strongly unstable across the Mid-South and
Ark-La-Tex. Despite the slowly weakening trough, a belt of 40-50 kt
700-mb west-southwesterlies will overspread the Mid-South portion of
the front and warm sector. This should be the most likely corridor
for supercells and bowing line segments. Damaging winds from strong
to isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard,
although a couple tornadoes and large hail are possible.

...Eastern IA and Northern IL/IN...
A warm front will attempt to advance northeast and approach the I-80
corridor through this afternoon. Ongoing convective swath to the
northeast of the front at present will slow its advancement and the
northern extent of weak surface-based instability should remain
confined near the boundary. Guidance differs on the strength of
low-level winds along the front, but consensus indicates overall
weakening will occur through the day as cyclolysis occurs.
Nevertheless, some vertical veering with height along the boundary
will support modestly enlarged low-level hodographs that might yield
a brief tornado or two. At this time, confidence is not large enough
to warrant a categorical upgrade, but it remains possible in later
outlooks.

...Northern Rockies and Eastern Great Basin...
A shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest will drift east with
scattered storms expected to develop across the higher terrain of
central ID/southwest MT and arcing south across western WY into
northern UT. Vertically veering wind profiles with height over the
northern Rockies will offer some risk for a couple supercells that
may produce severe hail. Otherwise, a broad swath of 35-55 kt 500-mb
southwesterlies will support isolated severe wind gusts with deeply
mixed thermodynamic profiles across northern UT/southwest WY.

...NC...
As a short wave impulse over VA shifts offshore today, a belt of
15-25 kt mid-level westerlies should be maintained across much of
NC. Scattered storms in this region may form into loosely organized
clusters producing locally strong wind gusts and attendant tree
damage.

..Grams/Broyles.. 08/20/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com